LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group

Platform comparison

Market context

HANJIN BRION’s meeting with Nongshim RedForce is scheduled as a best-of-three in the LCK Rise Group, and the market’s 37% implied chance on BRION sits below the type of near coin-flip pricing that often appears in lower-table domestic League of Legends series. Public match listings also show Nongshim ranked above BRION in global form tables, with Nongshim at world rank 97 and BRION at 132, which is consistent with a modest pre-match lean towards Nongshim rather than a strong favourite.[1][3][5]

The clearest comparison point is recent head-to-head form: BRION beat Nongshim 2–0 in May 2026, but Nongshim won the earlier series 2–1, so the matchup has already swung both ways this year.[10][11][12] Broader season context is also mixed, with one recent summary describing BRION as having endured a poor LCK Cup run, while Nongshim entered this stage with a more stabilised record and veteran core; that sort of split often explains why prediction markets price these series away from a simple team-strength model.[9][19]

Traders should watch for any late roster, timing, or format confirmation around the 08:00 local start, because even small schedule shifts can matter in markets with tight settlement rules.[1][5] The contract also resolves 50-50 if the match is cancelled, tied, or pushed beyond seven days without a winner, so pre-match uncertainty around venue, broadcast timing, or competitive integrity is more important than in a standard outright market.[2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Round 3-4 Rise Group across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.