Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: All Gamers (-2.5) vs TEC Esports (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 99% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 99% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 99% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 99% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: All Gamers (-2.5) vs TEC Esports (+2.5) | 50% |
| Match Winner | 34% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: All Gamers (-2.5) vs TEC Esports (+2.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: All Gamers (-3.5) vs TEC Esports (+3.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: AG (-1.5) vs TEC Esports (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
All Gamers face TEC Esports in the upper bracket final of VCT China Stage 2 Play-Ins on 12 August, with the winner advancing directly to the main event. The best-of-three match is scheduled for 4:00 AM ET, placing it during early morning hours in Western markets but within standard Chinese competitive windows. The 100% implied probability on this contract reflects settlement mechanics rather than confidence in either team's victory; the market resolves 50-50 only if the match is cancelled, delayed beyond seven days without completion, or ends in a tie—outcomes with minimal historical precedent in VCT fixtures.
Chinese Valorant's competitive structure has stabilised significantly since 2023, with fixture cancellations now rare outside major infrastructure disruptions. Previous VCT China play-in stages have maintained scheduling reliability, though occasional technical delays of 2–4 hours have occurred without affecting match completion. Both All Gamers and TEC Esports have competed in recent Chinese regional qualifiers; tracking roster changes and recent scrim results provides the most reliable indicator of match outcome, as public scouting reports on these teams remain limited outside Chinese-language esports media.
Traders should monitor official VCT China social channels and team announcements through 11 August for any schedule shifts or player availability issues. Fixture confirmation typically arrives 24–48 hours before play. The settlement window closes at 14:10 UTC on 12 August, allowing approximately ten hours post-match for result verification. No meaningful divergence exists between prediction-market pricing and available sportsbook lines, as Western bookmakers offer limited coverage of Chinese regional qualifiers; the 100% probability reflects the binary nature of the resolution criteria rather than market consensus on team strength.
Methodology
This page reviews Valorant: All Gamers vs TEC Esports (BO3) - VCT China Stage 2 Play-Ins across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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