WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above … on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

WTI crude oil needs to finish the session above the contract’s threshold for this market to resolve “yes”, and the current crowd price of **0%** says traders see that as essentially out of reach. That is notably more bearish than some public price boards for nearby WTI contracts: one live feed put WTI around **$74.40** for the August 2026 contract, while another had front-month WTI at **$82.67** on 29 July, showing that spot quotes and contract pricing can diverge materially depending on the feed and expiry used.[10][8]

For context, WTI has recently traded far from the levels that would support an above-threshold close in this market, with historical data showing **$78.94** on 22 June and a front-month reading near **$75.73** on 8 July.[12][13] By contrast, Kalshi’s own WTI ladder has shown substantial probability mass around nearby round-number levels such as **above $80.49** and **above $81.49**, which underlines that the 0% price here is a much more specific bet on the exact close, not a broad view on crude direction.[6]

The main catalysts are the usual late-day oil drivers: any EIA inventory release timing, changes in OPEC+ supply guidance, and moves in the broader risk and dollar backdrop, all of which can push the front month sharply in the settlement window. Recent market coverage has continued to frame WTI around supply and economic data rather than a single dominant shock, which means the close can still move quickly if headline flow or data land after the cash market has already set the tone.[19][18]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above … on August 4? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.