Türkiye vs. United States

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Türkiye and the United States meet in the final group game of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with the market currently pricing a **25% YES** chance for Türkiye to win in normal time. That sits broadly in line with the available sportsbook snapshot, where ESPN lists Türkiye around **+155** on the moneyline, implying roughly a low-to-mid 30s percentage before vig, while the United States is a narrow underdog at about **+150** and the draw is priced near **+245** to **+290** depending on the feed.[4] The game is scheduled for 25 June at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles, which also matters for any home-field read-through on the US side.[1][3]

The historical frame is mixed rather than lopsided. The USMNT holds a **2-1-1** record against Türkiye with six goals scored and five conceded, and has won the last two meetings, but the sample is tiny and stretches back to 1991.[2] For traders, that means the market is likely leaning more on current team strength and tournament context than head-to-head history. If you compare with the 2022-era World Cup market behaviour, late group-stage pricing tends to move quickly once qualification, rotation, or rest becomes clear, so a 25% print is best read as a live consensus, not a fixed rating.

The key catalysts are squad news, matchday incentives, and the result of the two preceding Group D fixtures. The United States play Paraguay on 12 June and Australia on 19 June before this match, so its need for points could be settled in advance; Türkiye’s own path into the game will depend on how their earlier group results land as well.[3] Any injury updates, suspension risk, or confirmed rotation in the days before kick-off can matter more than the pre-tournament label of “favourite” or “underdog”, especially with a group-stage match that may be shaped by qualification mathematics rather than pure team quality.[3][5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.