Israel agrees to Board of Peace Gaza plan by August 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

Israel’s public position is still the key variable: the 30 July roadmap links Hamas disarmament, staged Israeli withdrawal and outside verification, but reporting since then has said Israel has *not* publicly accepted the new text and has objected that it does not sufficiently guarantee Hamas’s demilitarisation.[1][11] That leaves the market far below a simple “deal announced” headline trade, even though the underlying framework is broad enough to keep optionality alive if Washington and regional mediators sweeten the terms.[2][3]

The 11% crowd-implied probability sits well below earlier headlines that briefly treated a breakthrough as likely, and below some media framing that implied the parties had endorsed the first phase of the wider Trump plan.[6][7][14] The closer comparable is not an immediate ceasefire vote but a conditional, multi-stage accord where acceptance, implementation and verification are separated by days or weeks; when plans require phased withdrawals and disarmament before reciprocity is locked in, early enthusiasm often fades once the final wording reaches Jerusalem.[8][16] In cross-platform terms, that usually means prediction markets price the legal form of acceptance more cautiously than headline-driven commentary, while sportsbook-style lines, where available, often track the same scepticism unless a formal cabinet statement or signed communique emerges.

Catalysts to watch are a formal Israeli cabinet or government announcement, any U.S.-brokered clarification on the roadmap’s wording, and whether the 14-day implementation mechanics begin to move after formal party approval.[8][11] Reuters and others have reported continued fighting alongside the new ceasefire push, which matters because ongoing strikes make an Israeli shift politically harder and raise the odds of delay, amendment or outright rejection.[12][4] A trader should also watch for whether reports start describing a revised or successor agreement endorsed by Israel before 7 August, since the market resolves on acceptance of the roadmap as credibly reported, not on whether the parties merely keep talking.[11]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Israel agrees to Board of Peace Gaza plan by August 7? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

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FAQ

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