US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

Platform comparison

Market context

The live event is the written US-Iran diplomatic instrument from June 2026 and, crucially, whether it becomes a qualifying final deal by 31 August 2026 rather than merely an interim framework. Reuters reported that the parties had a preliminary framework scheduled for signature and that the nuclear question was left for later talks, while AP later described an initial deal that starts a 60-day negotiation period rather than closing the file outright.[8][10]

That is why the market’s 0% YES looks far below the news-flow implied by the diplomacy, but it still reflects a hard legal distinction between an interim memorandum and a mutually signed or adopted final instrument. In comparable Iran nuclear talks, progress has often produced frameworks, draft exchanges, and technical meetings without immediate closure; Reuters and Bloomberg both noted in February that discussions were advancing but that major gaps remained, and ISW has argued Iran is unlikely to accept core US demands on enrichment and stockpiles.[9][13][12] On that history, prediction-market pricing should be read as a judgement on execution risk and formality, not on whether talks are happening.

The main catalysts are the next official rounds, any announced signing ceremony, and whether negotiators convert the current 60-day process into a document that is explicitly final and mutually adopted. Reuters said on 12 June that a signing in Europe was possible within days, and later reporting indicated the MoU was slated for Switzerland, with implementation and IAEA supervision following only after signature.[6][8][7] Traders should also watch for US sanctions waivers, Omani- or European-hosted technical sessions, and any language on uranium enrichment, frozen assets, or Strait of Hormuz access, because those are the points most likely to determine whether the current framework hardens into a qualifying contract.[1][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.