How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Fed will need to deliver actual 25-basis-point cuts in 2026 for this market to resolve **Yes**, and the crowd’s 89% implied probability is pointing to a relatively aggressive easing path. That sits well above the most hawkish published house views: J.P. Morgan expects the Fed to stay on hold through 2026, while Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have recently argued for cuts later in the year, with Goldman’s earlier framework centred on March and June and Morgan Stanley looking for two cuts in the second half.[1][2][16]

Historically, this kind of contract has been easiest to read when the Fed’s own projections and futures pricing are aligned; right now they are not. The March 2026 FOMC statement held rates at 3.50%–3.75%, but the median participant still projected one additional cut in 2026, while market commentary from earlier in the year showed investors moving from two cuts towards one and, at times, close to zero.[12][15] That leaves a clear gap between a high market-implied chance of at least one cut and the more cautious analyst consensus, which is clustered around one or two reductions rather than a full cycle of no change.[4][7]

The main catalysts are the remaining FOMC meetings, fresh inflation and labour-market data, and any shift in the Fed’s messaging about the balance between growth and price stability. Because the contract counts emergency moves and remains open until year-end, traders also need to watch for off-cycle action, though that is historically uncommon; in practice, the most likely path still runs through scheduled meetings and the December decision window.[6][12] Reuters recently reported that economists had pushed back expectations for cuts when inflation risks re-accelerated, which shows how quickly this contract can reprice if incoming data hardens or softens the case for easing.[11]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.