GPT-6 released by…?

Platform comparison

Market context

OpenAI has not publicly released GPT-6 to the general public, and the strongest factual anchor for this market is that the model many watchers expected to become GPT-6 shipped on 23 April 2026 as GPT-5.5 instead. That makes the contract’s 0% crowd-implied probability understandable: the market is betting that a clearly named, publicly accessible GPT-6 launch will not occur before the 31 December 2025 settlement deadline, which is now long past and would require an even earlier release to have happened.

The historical comparison is the pattern of OpenAI’s numbered-model roll-outs, where major launches have often arrived with incomplete advance signalling and sometimes under unexpected branding. In this case, the most relevant precedent is the “Spud” model, which was widely discussed as a GPT-6 candidate but ultimately appeared as GPT-5.5, reinforcing the idea that naming and release timing are not always aligned. Analysing comparable markets on major platforms, traders typically distinguish between a private preview, an API-only drop, and true public availability; for this contract, only the last of those counts, so a closed beta would not move the outcome to Yes.

The main catalysts to watch are OpenAI product announcements, model-card or release-note updates, and any public schedule that indicates a numbered successor rather than another GPT-5-family increment. Recent commentary has put the next frontier-model window in late 2026 or early 2027, with some observers treating a public 2026 launch as plausible and others pushing broad availability into 2027, which is the key divergence between analyst-style expectations and the market’s zero-implied stance. Any official statement that explicitly names GPT-6 and ties it to open sign-ups or general ChatGPT access would be the decisive trigger; absent that, the contract remains firmly in No territory.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.