Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The core event is whether Israel and Hamas reach an **official, publicly announced agreement** on the ceasefire’s second phase before the settlement deadline. The market’s 66% YES implies traders think the current diplomatic track has a better-than-even chance of producing a formal text, and that sits above the more cautious tone in several analyst assessments, which have repeatedly flagged that the hardest issues—Hamas disarmament, Israeli withdrawal, and Gaza’s future governance—remain unresolved. [1][11][16]

That pricing looks more constructive than the pattern seen in earlier ceasefire phases, where headline announcements often outpaced implementation. BBC reporting said phase two was meant to start shortly after phase one but did not, while PBS/AP and other coverage described talks as making no progress at points even when mediators were still shuttling between capitals. [5][13] On the other hand, the market is not betting on implementation in the abstract; it only needs a mutual agreement to be announced, which is a lower bar than a durable end-state settlement and helps explain why a probability in the mid-60s can coexist with analyst scepticism about execution. [1][15][16]

For traders, the main catalysts are official read-outs from Cairo, Washington, Doha, and Jerusalem, plus any announcement of mediator meetings or timelines for phased withdrawal, weapons inventory, or prisoner and hostage exchanges. Recent reporting says Hamas agreed to a deal and would issue a formal statement, while Egyptian state media said mediators were set to discuss the second phase, indicating that headline risk is concentrated in a short sequence of diplomacy rather than a long negotiation arc. [7][9] The most important dependency remains whether Israel publicly endorses the same package; without that, a unilateral Hamas statement would not settle the market. [7][9]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.