Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

Platform comparison

Market context

A formal new Abraham Accords signing by the end of 2026 would require an explicit, publicly acknowledged normalisation deal between Israel and one of the named countries, so the current **6%** crowd price is signalling a very low-probability diplomatic break-through. That sits below some recent market snapshots: Paridesk’s trading view showed the leading outcome around **24%** with Somaliland the front-runner, while another market summary put Somaliland at **26%** and Saudi Arabia at **12%**, implying traders see a tail-risk event rather than a near-term base case.[1][3]

The historical benchmark is that the original Abraham Accords moved through unusually strong US pressure and strategic alignment, with the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan joining in 2020-21; since then, expansion has been much harder, and no other country has publicly moved into the framework in the way a trader would need here.[2] That makes the comparison between prediction markets and analyst-style commentary important: market prices still leave room for an upside surprise, but the broader consensus from recent coverage is that there is no clear, public accession track for any candidate, and the odds are being driven more by speculative diplomacy than by a signed process.[2][4]

For traders, the key catalysts are official statements from Israel, the target government and Washington, plus any scheduled visits, security or economic talks, or indications that a normalisation package is being drafted. Saudi Arabia remains the most consequential name because a deal there would reshape regional pricing, but recent reporting noted that no other countries had publicly responded to renewed US appeals, which underlines how little visible momentum there is despite the occasional spike in market interest.[2][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

We track Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.