🎁 New traders: 100% Deposit Match up to $500 · 0% fees · instant USDC payoutsClaim it →
HomeGuideCryptoMarketsBlogLive odds →

Next French Presidential Election

Five-platform snapshot of "Next French Presidential Election" — live Polymarket pricing, plus how Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold structure the same contract.

Marine Le Pen 30% Édouard Philippe 26% Jean-Luc Mélenchon 14% Gabriel Attal 4% Volume: $117.1M Liquidity: $14.3M Closes: 30 Apr 2027
Open live market →
Next French Presidential Election

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 30% 70% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Live odds →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 30% 70% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Live odds →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Live odds →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Live odds →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Live odds →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Marine Le Pen30%
Édouard Philippe26%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon14%
Gabriel Attal4%
Jordan Bardella3%
Bruno Retailleau3%
François Hollande3%
David Lisnard2%
Raphaël Glucksmann2%
Dominique de Villepin2%
Sarah Knafo2%
Éric Zemmour1%
Sébastien Lecornu1%
Xavier Bertrand0%
Laurent Wauquiez0%
François Ruffin0%
Marine Tondelier0%
Fabien Roussel0%
Olivier Faure0%
Ségolène Royal0%
François Asselineau0%
Clémentine Autain0%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan0%
Michel Barnier0%
Valérie Pécresse0%
François Bayrou0%
Élisabeth Borne0%
Yaël Braun-Pivet0%
Jean Castex0%
Gérald Darmanin0%
Carole Delga0%
Bernard Cazeneuve0%
Manuel Bompard0%
Mathilde Panot0%
Other0%
Juan Branco0%
Clémence Guetté0%
Karim Bouamrane0%
Lucie Castets0%
Yannick Jadot0%
François Baroin0%
Marion Maréchal0%
Person J0%
Person K0%
Person L0%
Person M0%
Person N0%
Person O0%
Person P0%
Person Q0%
Person R0%
Person S0%
Person T0%
Person U0%
Person V0%
Person W0%
Person X0%
Person Y0%
Person Z0%
Person AA0%
Person AB0%
Person AC0%
Person AD0%
Person AE0%
Person AF0%
Person AG0%
Person AH0%
Person AI0%
Person AJ0%
Person AK0%
Person AL0%
Person AM0%
Person AN0%
Person AO0%
Person AP0%
Person AQ0%
Person AR0%
Person AS0%
Person AT0%
Person AU0%
Person AV0%
Person AW0%
Person AX0%
Person AY0%
Person AZ0%
Person BA0%
Person BB0%
Person BC0%
Person BD0%
Person BE0%
Person BF0%
Person BG0%
Person BH0%
Person BI0%
Person BJ0%
Person BK0%
Person BL0%
Person BM0%
Person BN0%
Person BO0%
Person BP0%
Person BQ0%
Person BR0%
Person BS0%
Person BT0%
Person BU0%
Person BV0%
Person BW0%
Person BX0%
Person BY0%
Person BZ0%
Person CA0%
Person CB0%
Person CC0%
Person CD0%
Person CE0%
Person CF0%
Person CG0%
Person CH0%
Person CI0%
Person CJ0%
Person CK0%
Person CL0%
Person CM0%
Person CN0%
Person CO0%
Person CP0%
Person CQ0%

Market context

Live Polymarket data shows 30% YES probability for Next French Presidential Election. The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follow…

Methodology

This page reviews Next French Presidential Election across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Maya TorresMaya TorresFinancial Markets WriterandPriya SharmaPriya SharmaCrypto & DeFi Analyst

Trade Next French Presidential Election on Best Prediction Markets

Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.

Open live market →

Related live markets

More live prediction markets from our tracker — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets.

See all markets →