Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The key question is whether daily ship movements in the Strait of Hormuz can sustain a **seven-day average of 60 or more** on IMF Portwatch before year-end. That is roughly a full return to pre-disruption traffic, and it is materially above recent readouts: Reuters reported in April that traffic was still below 10% of usual volumes, while later coverage from Kpler and CNBC described a recovery to only partial normality, with traders pricing in a slower return than the headline ceasefire narratives suggested.[3][12][13]

Historical comparables point to how fragile this level is. Even after brief rebounds, traffic has repeatedly fallen back when security headlines worsened, and Kpler has shifted its base case from a de-escalation scenario to normalisation only in early 2027.[12] That helps explain why the crowd-implied 57% YES looks only modestly bullish rather than decisive: it is consistent with a market expecting some reopening, but not yet a clean, durable move to the 60-call threshold. CNBC also reported in July that prediction-market traders had turned more sceptical after renewed U.S.-Iran tensions and a fresh blockade dynamic.[6][13]

The main catalysts are security announcements, naval escort arrangements, and any evidence of mines being cleared or restrictions eased, because insurance and routing decisions can lag even after political statements. The New York Times reported in June that an interim U.S.-Iran agreement called for reopening measures over a 60-day negotiation phase, but also flagged technical and military obstacles; that means shipping data can stay depressed even when diplomacy improves.[8] Traders should watch for new ceasefire language, sanctions or blockade changes, and whether Portwatch starts posting a sustained rise in counted transits rather than one-off spikes, since the market resolves only when the 7-day average reaches the stated level.[8]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

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