Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is still the key real-world variable behind this contract, but the market is not asking whether the corridor is merely open: it needs IMF Portwatch’s 7-day moving average of ship arrivals to reach **60 or more** by 31 July 2026. Recent shipping data pointed to a fragile recovery after the June–July fighting, with Reuters reporting daily Hormuz transits at multi-week lows as renewed U.S.-Iran strikes and attacks on vessels kept operators cautious, while other trackers showed only a partial rebound from the worst disruption.[9][10]

That backdrop helps explain why a **0% YES** crowd price looks far more pessimistic than the pre-conflict baseline would suggest. Before the escalation, journalists and ship-tracking firms described typical daily traffic at roughly **100 to 140 vessels**, but the post-conflict period saw readings as low as **6, 14, 34, 40, and 47–48** on various days and datasets, with even Reuters noting only **three** commodity vessels on one day and Kpler describing traffic as “continued at reduced levels”.[1][2][3][6][7][9][10][12][17] In other words, the contract is not priced against ordinary traffic norms but against whether the recovery can sustain a 7-day average above 60; on the evidence available, that would require a materially steadier rebound than the recent pattern has shown.[1][2][3][9][10]

For catalysts, traders should watch any shift in the U.S.-Iran military posture, maritime safety advisories, and whether shipping firms resume normal routing or continue to sail “dark” to reduce exposure.[6][7][9][10] Reuters and S&P Global both highlighted that recent attacks and cautionary guidance from the International Maritime Organization have changed routing behaviour, which matters because the contract depends on reported crossings rather than headline claims that the strait is open.[6][9][10] The practical question is whether the post-conflict lull proves temporary or becomes the new operating range; with the settlement window now running to year-end 2026, the odds will likely move only if traffic data show a sustained return towards pre-war volumes rather than isolated spikes.[2][3][9]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.