How many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 3 - August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

A magnitude 6.5-plus earthquake anywhere on Earth during the August 3-9 window is a high-frequency global seismic event, and the contract’s **97% YES** crowd price already implies that at least one qualifying quake is overwhelmingly expected. That sits comfortably above the sort of event-rate pricing seen on broad global earthquake markets, where traders are usually reacting to an active plate-boundary calendar rather than a single forecastable trigger; by contrast, sportsbook-style lines are typically absent here, so the useful comparison is between the market price and the USGS-backed history of frequent M6.5+ shocks. Recent global activity also kept the floor high: the BGS significant-events feed listed a **6.8 in Kyushu, Japan on 28 July**, and a **6.5 offshore Mindanao on 26 June**, showing that qualifying quakes have continued to appear even in a short lookback window.[5]

For context, 2026 has already produced multiple large earthquakes, including a major Mindanao sequence that generated very large aftershock totals, which matters because traders often treat recent clustering as evidence of a persistent elevated baseline rather than a one-off spike.[13] At the lower end, Earthquaketrack’s USGS-based daily page for **3 August** showed only **M5.2** as the largest quake that day, so the absence of an early-week M6.5 does not itself pressure the contract much if later events land inside the settlement window.[12] The key historical read-through is simple: global M6.5+ quakes are common enough that a near-certain price is plausible, but the contract still hinges on whether USGS later records and publishes an event inside the exact ET window.

The main catalyst for traders is not a scheduled announcement but the lag between an actual quake and its appearance in the USGS catalogue, since the market resolves on that database rather than media reports.[9] That means the important watchpoints are late-updated USGS event pages and any revisions to magnitude, origin time or duplicate entries, especially after large offshore or remote events that can take longer to finalise.[8][9] Current short-term monitoring sites showed continued global seismicity without a 6.0+ on 9 August in one hourly report, which reinforces that the market is really about catalogue confirmation, not just raw shaking activity.[6]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track How many 6.5 or above earthquakes August 3 - August 9? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.