Norway vs. England - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Market context

The FIFA World Cup quarter-final between Norway and England takes place on 11 July 2026 at Miami Stadium, with the market focusing solely on the exact score after 90 minutes of regulation. Current crowd-implied probability for a specific listed outcome sits at 7% YES, while major sportsbooks price England as favourites with a -115 money line and Norway at +295, reflecting a notable divergence from the prediction market’s tighter odds on the exact score contract.

Historically, exact-score markets in World Cup knockout games rarely exceed 10% implied probability for any single outcome, given the high variance in stoppage-time goals and defensive resilience. Norway’s recent form—having eliminated Brazil 2-1 in the Round of 16—contrasts sharply with their head-to-head record against England, where they have failed to score in four consecutive matches and won only two of twelve overall encounters[1][7]. This tension between Norway’s upset momentum and England’s historical dominance frames the current 7% probability as plausible but fragile.

Traders should monitor final squad announcements and injury updates for Harry Kane and Martin Ødegaard, both critical to their teams’ attacking structures. ESPN’s live odds page shows a slight shift toward under 2.5 total goals, suggesting markets expect a tight, low-scoring affair[2]. With the settlement window closing at 21:00 UTC on 11 July, any postponement will extend the market’s open period, but cancellation without a make-up game would void all positions. Recent coverage confirms Norway’s Viking Row celebration after their Brazil victory, underscoring their confidence entering this quarter-final clash[3][4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.