Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Chicago Cubs and New York Mets are set to face off in a crucial MLB game at Citi Field in Queens, New York, with first pitch scheduled for 7:10 PM ET on 22 June. The market currently implies a 47% probability that the Cubs will win, suggesting a near-even contest where the home side holds a slight edge. This matchup is part of a four-game series, with the Mets having already led the series 2–1 in prior games, adding historical weight to the current odds.

Historically, games between these two teams at Citi Field have shown a tendency for the home team to prevail, though the Cubs’ recent home record (17–11) contrasts with the Mets’ weaker form (14–13), creating a divergence that may explain the prediction market’s slight lean toward the Cubs despite the Mets’ series lead. Sportsbooks currently list the Mets at -120, while some analysts favour the Cubs at -110, indicating a meaningful split between traditional odds and prediction-market implied probability. This divergence suggests that traders should monitor how the market adjusts as the game approaches, particularly if weather or pitching changes occur.

Key catalysts include any updates on starting pitchers, especially given the Mets’ reliance on Shota Imanaga and the Cubs’ recent offensive output, which saw Brett Baty hit a 3-run homer in a previous encounter [8]. Traders should also watch for postponement notices, as the game was previously flagged as postponed on 22 June [4], and confirm the final broadcast details on Marquee Sports Network and SNY [5][6]. Any shift in line-up announcements or weather conditions could significantly alter the implied probability and create trading opportunities.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.