Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
91% | 9% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
91% | 9% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 91% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 74% |
| Udinese Calcio O/U 0.5 | 73% |
| SS Lazio O/U 0.5 | 72% |
| O/U 1.5 | 71% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 66% |
| Both Teams to Score | 52% |
| Udinese Calcio 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 52% |
| SS Lazio 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| SS Lazio 2nd Half (-2.5) | 50% |
| Udinese Calcio 1st Half (-2.5) | 49% |
| Udinese Calcio 2nd Half (-2.5) | 45% |
| O/U 2.5 | 44% |
| SS Lazio 2nd Half (-1.5) | 44% |
| Udinese Calcio 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 42% |
| SS Lazio 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 42% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 40% |
| Udinese Calcio 2nd Half (-1.5) | 38% |
| Udinese Calcio O/U 1.5 | 35% |
| SS Lazio O/U 1.5 | 34% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 28% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 25% |
| O/U 3.5 | 23% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 18% |
| Udinese Calcio 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 15% |
| SS Lazio 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 15% |
| Udinese Calcio (-1.5) | 14% |
| SS Lazio (-1.5) | 14% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| Udinese Calcio O/U 2.5 | 12% |
| SS Lazio O/U 2.5 | 12% |
| O/U 4.5 | 10% |
| Udinese Calcio 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 10% |
| SS Lazio 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 10% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 9% |
| Udinese Calcio 1st Half (-1.5) | 6% |
| SS Lazio 1st Half (-1.5) | 6% |
| Udinese Calcio (-2.5) | 4% |
| SS Lazio (-2.5) | 4% |
| O/U 5.5 | 3% |
| SS Lazio 1st Half (-2.5) | 1% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, udinese calcio vs. ss lazio - more markets stands at 91% likelihood according to current market consensus. More markets for the Serie A game, scheduled for September 7 at 2:45 PM ET.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade Udinese Calcio vs. SS Lazio - More Markets on Best Prediction Markets
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →