Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map Handicap: VARREL (-1.5) vs Paper Rex (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-3.5) vs VARREL (+3.5) | 75% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 51% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 26% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 26% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-4.5) vs VARREL (+4.5) | 26% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 1% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs VARREL (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-4.5) vs VARREL (+4.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-4.5) vs VARREL (+4.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-3.5) vs VARREL (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-3.5) vs VARREL (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-5.5) vs VARREL (+5.5) | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of valorant: varrel vs paper rex (bo3) - vct pacific group omega. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the Valorant match between VARREL and Paper Rex in the VCT Pacific Group Omega, initially scheduled for August 9 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "V…
Methodology
We track Valorant: VARREL vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Omega across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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