Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Sopo: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Valentina Mediorreal Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Sopo: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Valentina Mediorreal Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Sopo: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Valentina Mediorreal Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Sopo: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Valentina Mediorreal Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Sopo: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Valentina Mediorreal Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Sopo: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Valentina Mediorreal | 98% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Sopo: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Valentina Mediorreal Game Spread +/-8.5 | 49% |
| Sopo: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Valentina Mediorreal Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Sopo: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Valentina Mediorreal Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Sopo: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Valentina Mediorreal Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, sopo: maria lourdes carle vs valentina mediorreal stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the tennis match between Maria Lourdes Carle and Valentina Mediorreal in the Sopo, originally scheduled for November 10, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will…
Methodology
We track Sopo: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Valentina Mediorreal across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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