Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
37% | 63% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
37% | 63% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| August 10 | 37% |
| No release by August 31 | 13% |
| August 12 | 9% |
| August 24 | 6% |
| August 25 | 5% |
| August 27 | 4% |
| August 18 | 3% |
| August 6 | 2% |
| August 7 | 2% |
| August 8 | 2% |
| August 11 | 2% |
| August 16 | 2% |
| August 26 | 2% |
| August 28 | 2% |
| August 9 | 1% |
| August 13 | 1% |
| August 14 | 1% |
| August 17 | 1% |
| August 19 | 1% |
| August 20 | 1% |
| August 21 | 1% |
| August 29 | 1% |
| August 31 | 1% |
| On or prior to August 1 | 0% |
| August 2 | 0% |
| August 3 | 0% |
| August 4 | 0% |
| August 5 | 0% |
| August 15 | 0% |
| August 22 | 0% |
| August 23 | 0% |
| August 30 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 37% chance of next google gemini pro model released on 2026?. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public. Any Gemini model released after marke…
Methodology
This page reviews Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on 2026? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on 2026? on Best Prediction Markets
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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