National Bank Open: Raphael Collignon vs Alexei Popyrin

Platform comparison

Market context

Raphaël Collignon’s meeting with Alexei Popyrin in Montreal sits in the market as a modest Collignon lean, with the contract at 60% YES against an implied Popyrin price of 40%. That is broadly consistent with the live tennis data: the pair have already met once this season on grass in Halle, where Collignon won 6-4, 6-2, and head-to-head pages still show a 1-0 edge for the Belgian[3][4][16].

The historical frame is mixed, though, because Popyrin’s profile at this level is stronger. Tennis.com lists him at world No. 38 versus Collignon’s No. 139, while also noting Popyrin as the defending Canadian Open quarter-final points holder[14][5]. At the same time, several form trackers show Collignon arriving with the cleaner season record, including a 46-23 mark over the past 52 weeks and a broader 2026 win rate that is well ahead of Popyrin’s[1][5][13]. That split explains why a 60% market is not far from a typical cross-platform read: books and trackers appear to weight ranking and venue pedigree towards Popyrin, while recent form and the prior head-to-head support Collignon.

For traders, the main catalysts are straightforward: confirm the match actually starts as scheduled, watch for any order-of-play changes in Montreal, and track whether either player advances through earlier rounds with heavy court time or fitness issues. The market rules also matter because any cancellation, tie, or delay beyond seven days forces a 50-50 settlement, so pre-match weather, scheduling compression, or withdrawal news would be more important here than in a standard straight winner market. Popyrin’s value is also sensitive to whether he is protecting ranking points from last year’s run, which can influence how aggressively he is expected to play in the early rounds[5][14].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.