National Bank Open: Jacob Fearnley vs Jakub Mensik

Platform comparison

Market context

Jacob Fearnley’s second-round meeting with Jakub Menšík in Montreal is priced very heavily towards the Czech player, but the current prediction-market contract showing **0% YES** for Fearnley is more extreme than the wider market. Across listed bookmakers, Mensík is generally around 1.33-1.36 and Fearnley around 3.00-3.40, which implies roughly a 73-75% chance for Mensík and a 25-27% chance for Fearnley before margin. Kalshi’s related market is also broadly aligned with that read, showing Mensík at about 74% and Fearnley at 26%, while model-based previews cluster close to the same range, typically giving Mensík about 70-75% and Fearnley about 25-30%.[1][10][12][13]

That makes this contract useful to read as a test of whether a near-zero crowd price is simply a view that Fearnley has no realistic path, or whether it is an obvious mispricing versus the sportsbook and model consensus. The historical framing is straightforward: Menšík is the established top-20 level player here, while Fearnley is rated outside the top 100 in the live ranking snapshot, and the head-to-head is listed as 0-0.[1][6][16] In comparable ATP Masters 1000 early-round matches, markets usually track the favourite closely rather than collapsing the underdog to zero, so a 0% crowd read stands out as a sharper stance than the underlying tennis pricing.[1][10][13]

The main catalysts are mundane but important: confirmed start time, whether the match is moved on the schedule, and whether any retirement, walkover or weather disruption changes the resolution rules. Tennis Temple and other live listings place the match on Court 5 with a scheduled start around 21:00 local time, while broadcast listings and live score feeds suggest the fixture is active on the day but do not yet imply a completed result.[3][6][14] If the match is delayed, interrupted or not played, the market’s tie/50-50 contingency becomes the key dependency rather than the pre-match odds.[0][3][7]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.