Canadian Open: Marton Fucsovics vs Corentin Moutet

Platform comparison

Market context

Marton Fucsovics and Corentin Moutet are set to meet at the Canadian Open in a match that is close enough for small pricing differences to matter. The market’s **48% yes** implies Fucsovics is only a very slight outsider in a near coin-flip, which sits broadly in line with sportsbook-style pricing that has had Moutet marginally favoured, including one current preview listing him around **-114** to Fucsovics **-106**.[20] That is a meaningful contrast with some model-style previews that lean the other way, with one Canadian Open preview backing **Fucsovics in three** and another tipping **Moutet to win** outright.[9][18]

The historical frame explains why this contract is priced so tightly. Their head-to-head is level across recent reporting, with one source listing the overall series at **2-2** and another at **1-1**, while both agree the matchup has split by surface and produced competitive scorelines.[6][7][12] The most recent reported meeting went to Fucsovics in a three-set comeback at Bucharest, but Moutet won their earlier hard-court meeting in Adelaide, so there is no clean dominance to anchor a strong favourite price.[19][12]

For traders, the main catalysts are straightforward: final match confirmation, court assignment, and whether the contest starts on schedule in Montreal. Live-score listings show the fixture attached to **3 August 2026**, and the market rules mean any cancellation, tie, or delay beyond seven days would settle **50-50** rather than to either player.[1][5] The key dependency is whether the match is actually played and completed in a way that produces a clear winner; if it begins but does not finish under the contract’s completion rules, resolution can still revert away from a straight player win.[17]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.