Lexington: Andre Ilagan vs Edas Butvilas

Platform comparison

Market context

Andre Ilagan is the listed match winner against Edas Butvilas in Lexington, but the contract is currently showing **0% YES** in the prediction market, which points to either stale pricing, a settlement edge case, or a market that has not yet caught up with live information. That contrasts with bookmaker-style previews that have treated Butvilas as the betting favourite: Tennis Tonic quoted pre-match odds of 1.45 for Butvilas and 2.51 for Ilagan, while also noting Ilagan’s 1-0 head-to-head lead on hard courts after a straight-sets win in Tyler in June 2026.[7][3]

The historical frame here is mixed rather than one-sided. Head-to-head databases show Ilagan leading 1-0 overall and 1-0 on hard courts, with that previous meeting ending 6-3, 6-4 in his favour.[3][11] At the same time, Tennis Tonic’s preview argued for Butvilas in three sets, suggesting analyst consensus leaned the other way despite the head-to-head result.[7] In other words, the market is not pricing a clean repeat of the earlier result, and a 0% implied probability is far more extreme than the pre-match odds or analyst view.

The main catalyst is whether the Lexington match is formally completed and recorded before the settlement deadline, because the contract rules also allow a 50-50 outcome if the match is not played, ends level, or is delayed beyond seven days without a winner. Live scoring sources show the pair were on court on 9 August 2026, and that is the key dependency for traders: an official completion should settle the market, while any retirement, abandonment, or schedule change could shift it into the fallback rules instead.[1][5][10]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Lexington: Andre Ilagan vs Edas Butvilas across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.