National Bank Open: Zachary Svajda vs Arthur Fils

Platform comparison

Market context

Arthur Fils v Zachary Svajda is a straightforward ranking-versus-ranking spot on hard court, and the market is already treating it that way: the prediction contract is at **0% YES** on Svajda, while one tennis pricing model has Fils as a strong favourite at around **-333**, implying roughly a three-in-four chance.[3][15] That is broadly consistent with the pre-match preview pricing, where Fils was listed at about **1.31** against Svajda’s **3.44**, and with the ATP rankings gap shown by live match pages, which place Fils around **24th** and Svajda around **87th**.[14][5][9]

The historical frame is thin because the pair have **no previous tour-level head-to-head**, so traders are leaning on season-level form rather than matchup history.[1][4][6] On those numbers, Fils has the clearer profile: one source has him at **23-9** in 2026 with an **11-4** hard-court record, while Svajda’s 2026 hard-court record is shown as **17-7** by one stats site and his broader career record is materially weaker overall.[2][4][14] That leaves the contract’s 0% print looking more like a confidence signal in Fils than a view that Svajda cannot compete; in these cases, even small shifts in player fitness or scheduling can move the true price more than the headline rank gap.

For catalysts, the main watchpoint is whether the match is actually completed within the tournament’s timetable, because the contract pays out **50-50** if it is cancelled, ends tied, or slips beyond seven days without a winner.[Market description] Live score pages and tournament listings confirm the match is/was scheduled for **5 August 2026** in Montréal, so any change in draw order, rain delay, withdrawal, or retirement would matter more here than in a normal straight moneyline bet.[5][6][8][9] A trader should also watch for last-minute fitness news and whether either player is moved on the schedule by the National Bank Open, since completion risk is what would matter most if the match starts but does not finish.[Market description]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.