Warsaw: Carol Young Suh Lee vs Aliona Falei

Platform comparison

Market context

Carol Young Suh Lee’s match with Aliona Falei in Warsaw has Carol Lee priced as the clear favourite across both bookmakers and the prediction market. The sportsbook average in the search results is roughly 1.52 for Lee and 2.37 for Falei, which implies about 66% for Lee before margin, while the contract is trading at a much higher **92% YES** on Lee advancing.[1][8][9]

That gap matters because it is materially larger than the usual bookmaker-to-market drift for a single women’s match. MatchStat’s odds-derived model puts Falei at 44.25%, which still leaves Lee at about 55.75% on that source’s estimate, while Tennis Temple’s match page shows a strong Lee lean of 81.8% to 18.2% in betting commentary.[2][7] In other words, the market is not just calling Lee favourite; it is pricing an outcome closer to certainty than the cross-platform evidence supports.[1][2][7][9]

For traders, the main catalysts are procedural rather than tactical: whether the match starts on schedule, whether there is any late withdrawal, and whether the tie progresses normally before the settlement window closes on 12 August. The market rules also matter, because a cancellation, tie, or delay beyond seven days from the scheduled date would force a 50-50 resolution rather than a win for either side.[9] There is no sign in the available listings of a major injury or withdrawal update, so the relevant watchpoints are the official draw status, court order, and any same-day change to the Warsaw schedule.[3][4][6][13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.