National Bank Open: Janice Tjen vs Liudmila Samsonova

Platform comparison

Market context

Janice Tjen’s Toronto meeting with Liudmila Samsonova is trading as a lopsided Samsonova spot across the market stack, but the crowd-implied 0% YES price on Tjen is far more extreme than the broader tennis market evidence. In their only completed head-to-head in Abu Dhabi on hard courts in February 2026, Samsonova beat Tjen 6-2, 6-2[1][8], and Tennis.com lists Samsonova at 37 in the WTA singles rankings versus Tjen at 70[5]. That lines up with sportsbook pricing from comparable pre-match listings: Tennis Explorer’s average odds for the pair were 1.54 on Samsonova and 2.44 on Tjen, while Bet365 was quoted at 1.53 and 2.50 respectively[8][13].

Analyst consensus has also leaned Samsonova rather than a coin-flip outcome, although not as aggressively as a zero-per-cent market would suggest. Tennis Tonic explicitly picked Samsonova in that earlier matchup, and even there the preview framed her as a favourite rather than an overwhelming one[16]. For traders, the main catalysts are whether the National Bank Open schedule holds, whether there is any late injury or withdrawal news, and whether the match is moved or walked over before the scheduled 3 August start; if it is not played or is delayed beyond the market’s seven-day settlement window, the contract resolves 50-50 instead[1][5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews National Bank Open: Janice Tjen vs Liudmila Samsonova across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.