Highest temperature in Atlanta on August 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

Atlanta’s airport temperature high for 5 August settled in the mid-80s Fahrenheit, with Wunderground as the market’s reference source and the official outcome tied to the Hartsfield-Jackson station reading rather than a citywide average. That matters for comparison because the live market is not pricing a generic Atlanta forecast: it is pricing a specific daily maximum at KATL, where a few degrees either side of the forecast can shift the contract into a different bucket.

The current crowd-implied probability of **0% YES** looks disconnected from the broader temperature picture elsewhere. Polymarket’s own distribution still shows substantial weight across the warmest bins, with **84–85°F** and **86–87°F** both marked at 50%, while Robinhood’s climate market similarly centres the day around the mid-80s to upper-80s range, including 85, 86 and 87 as active price points. By contrast, weather-history data for Atlanta in August points to a typical high in the upper 80s, and recent local extremes have reached 100°F in late July 2025, so a high in the mid-80s would be unremarkable rather than cold.

For traders, the main catalysts are the intraday forecast updates, especially any changes to thunderstorm coverage, cloud build-up and rain timing, because those are the factors most likely to cap the maximum temperature at the airport. Atlanta’s summer climate also makes the afternoon build the key period: once a morning forecast firms around the low 90s, the market usually stays sensitive to any shift in convective rain chances or wind-driven cooling. The present spread between Polymarket, Robinhood and the near-zero YES reading suggests the market may be underweighting the possibility that the day lands in a warmer bucket than the crowd currently expects.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.