Highest temperature in Beijing on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing’s highest temperature on 10 August will be set by the Weather Underground daily observations for Beijing Capital International Airport, with the market settling to the temperature range that contains that recorded peak. The crowd is currently assigning **0% YES**, which is notably below the seasonal backdrop: August normals for Beijing cluster around the low 30s Celsius, and multiple weather guides put early- to mid-August daytime highs near 31–34°C, with historical Aug. 10 highs around 31°C and extremes into the mid-30s. [2][4][5][7][20]

That makes the contract a test of whether traders expect a routine summer high rather than an outlier heat event. Comparable history suggests Beijing can comfortably reach the low 30s in August, but the long-run distribution is still centred well below the hottest extremes, with one source listing a record August high of 33.3°C over 18 years and another putting an Aug. 10 extreme high at 35°C. [4][7][13] Against that backdrop, a 0% YES line looks sharply lower than the climate context and also lower than the current non-historical weather services, which were showing a warm, sunny forecast around 91–93°F for 10 August. [14][16]

Traders should watch the airport station’s hourly observations rather than the summary high/low figures, because the settlement rules make the Daily Observations table controlling if there is any mismatch. [19][6] The key dependency is simply whether late-day heat at Beijing Capital International Airport pushes the observed maximum into the contract’s target band before the 12:00 UTC settlement window closes; no meaningful analyst consensus was found in the supplied sources, and there is no sportsbook line in the results to compare directly against the prediction-market price. [18][19]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Beijing on August 10? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.