Highest temperature in Beijing on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing's maximum temperature on 11 August 2026 will be measured at the Capital International Airport Station and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning traders must rely on preliminary readings rather than any final daily summary. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature range or minimal trading activity on this particular contract.

August temperatures in Beijing typically peak between 32–35°C, with occasional readings exceeding 36°C during heat waves. Historical data from the past decade shows that mid-August highs rarely fall below 30°C or exceed 38°C at the airport station. The current implied probability of 0% for this market's resolution range indicates either that traders have concentrated their positions elsewhere on the temperature spectrum or that the range itself sits outside typical August conditions. Comparable weather markets on other platforms show similar clustering around 32–36°C bands for summer Beijing forecasts, suggesting the crowd expects temperatures within normal seasonal bounds.

The China Meteorological Administration typically issues extended forecasts five to ten days before major weather events, though summer heat patterns in northern China remain difficult to predict beyond a week. Any significant atmospheric pressure systems moving into the region during late July or early August could shift temperatures materially. Traders should monitor official CMA advisories and real-time station data from Weather Underground itself in the days preceding 11 August, as the resolution source explicitly prioritises the Daily Observations table over summary figures, which occasionally diverge by 1–2°C.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.