Highest temperature in Beijing on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing Capital International Airport is the relevant measuring point here, so the market is about the day’s *single highest observed airport temperature* on 3 August, not the citywide average or the forecast maximum for central Beijing. With the contract already pricing **0% YES**, the crowd is effectively saying the current data path points outside the active outcome band, but that is a much stronger view than the weather guidance itself currently supports. Forecast services for early August still cluster around the low-to-mid 30s Celsius for Beijing, with one source showing 3 August near **37°C** and another putting the city’s day-ahead official maximum at **32°C** with thunderstorms, which illustrates how different models can diverge on the same date and why a zero-implied price can be fragile if the airport runs a little hotter than expected.[2][3][5][6]

Historically, Beijing in August is hot, humid and rainfall-prone, with typical daytime highs around **30–31°C** and occasional spikes into the mid-30s, while the month’s weather is often shaped by convective showers that can trim the peak after midday.[6][8][15][16] That framing matters for this contract because small shifts in cloud cover, rain timing or wind can move the recorded airport high by several degrees, and the difference between a 31°C afternoon and a brief 35–37°C clearing is often decisive for range-based settlement. In other words, the market looks less like a steady climate bet and more like a narrow short-range forecast on whether Beijing Capital International Airport gets a true heat spike or a muted, shower-interrupted maximum.[2][5][16]

For traders, the main catalysts are the latest short-range forecast updates and the actual station observations on the day, rather than any policy or scheduled announcement. The key dependency is the Wunderground airport history page used for settlement, so live airport readings, thunderstorm timing and any late-day clearing are more relevant than broader Beijing city forecasts. Recent public guidance is mixed: one official city bulletin for 3 August lists Beijing at **25–32°C** with thunderstorms, while other forecast products point materially higher, which is the kind of spread that can keep sportsbook-style lines and prediction-market odds out of alignment until very late in the settlement window.[3][5][7]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Beijing on August 3? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.