Highest temperature in Busan on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Busan’s highest temperature on 10 August is usually a mid-to-high 20s Celsius reading, and the market is currently pricing that kind of outcome rather than any extreme heat. The contract’s crowd-implied structure is also notably tighter than the broader weather outlook would suggest: Polymarket shows **30°C** as the leading outcome at **44%**, followed by **31°C** at **33%**, while the wider August climatology for Busan points to average highs around **26.8–27.0°C** and typical monthly highs near **29–30°C**. [3][5][8][11]

That makes the present **0% YES** quote look like a clear outlier versus the surrounding market and the historical baseline. Comparable August climate data for Busan shows that highs above **30°C** are plausible but not the default, with the city’s August average high near **84–87°F** and long-run August maxima around **30.4°C**, though hotter spikes do occur in unusually warm spells. South Korea has also just seen a national record heat reading of **42.5°C** in Yangsan, which matters only as a regional heat backdrop rather than a direct Busan guide. [8][11][12][18]

For traders, the key catalyst is the actual **Daily Observations** entry from Weather Underground at Gimhae Intl Airport, since this contract resolves to the day’s observed peak in that table, not the broader “Day High & Low” summary. Early forecast feeds for 10 August point to roughly **28–30°C** with thunderstorms or cloud early and some wind, which can cap daytime heating if they verify, but the exact settlement range will depend on the station observation that prints before the market’s window closes at **12:00 UTC**. [9][15][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.