Highest temperature in Busan on August 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Busan's weather on 15 August 2026 will determine the settlement of this temperature-range contract, with resolution contingent on the highest reading recorded at Gimhae International Airport Station as documented in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% suggests traders are either awaiting additional context or treating the market as incomplete pending clarification on which temperature range options are available for settlement.

Busan experiences consistent summer heat in mid-August, with historical highs typically ranging between 28–32°C during this period. The city's coastal location moderates extreme temperatures compared to inland Korean regions, though humidity levels remain elevated. August 2023 saw Busan peak at 31.2°C on the 15th, whilst August 2022 recorded 29.8°C on the same date. These precedents suggest the eventual resolution will likely fall within the upper-twenties to low-thirties Celsius range, though the absence of visible probability distribution across available outcome ranges indicates traders may lack clarity on the specific temperature brackets offered.

No recent weather forecasts or meteorological alerts have emerged that would substantially alter typical August conditions in Busan. The settlement window extends to mid-August 2026, providing ample time for seasonal patterns to develop normally. Traders should monitor any publication of the actual temperature-range options available for this contract, as the current zero probability may reflect missing information rather than genuine market consensus that temperatures will fall outside all defined ranges.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.