Highest temperature in Busan on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Busan’s heat on 6 August is the underlying event, with the market settling on the day’s *maximum* temperature at Gimhae International Airport Station as recorded by Wunderground, not the citywide average or a forecast high. The crowd is currently pricing this contract at **0% YES**, which is notably softer than the public weather outlook: AccuWeather’s monthly view shows Busan with highs around **87–88°F** on nearby days, while other forecast services put 6 August itself in the low 30s Celsius, with one showing **31°C/25°C** and another **33°C** as a daytime peak estimate.[2][13][11][7]

Historically, Busan is warm in August but usually well below the extreme heat now being discussed in parts of South Korea. Long-run climate summaries put August highs around **29–31°C**, with humidity and rainfall common, while Busan’s all-time modern record reached **38.8°C** during an exceptional heatwave in 2018; that is the reference point for how far a truly hot reading can run.[17][15][4] Against that backdrop, a 0% implied probability looks less like a view on the weather than a sign that the contract is being treated as extremely unlikely to land in the top temperature bands, even though the broader market for South Korean heat has recently been volatile and record-adjacent.[5][8]

The main catalysts are operational rather than political: updated afternoon forecasts, cloud cover, rainfall timing, and sea-breeze effects at Gimhae, which can materially limit the airport’s maximum even when Busan proper feels oppressive. South Korean news coverage on 6 August says the national heat spell is expected to *peak Friday then ease*, with Busan forecast around **33°C** on Thursday and hotter inland regions taking the brunt of the extremes, so traders will be watching whether local warming outperforms that city forecast or gets capped by coastal moderation.[8][11] Because settlement uses the airport station and the day closes on Wunderground’s daily high, late-morning and early-afternoon updates matter most.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Busan on August 6? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.