Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s temperature on 4 August is set to be judged by the day’s *single highest reading* at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport, so the market is really about whether the city can briefly touch the mid-30s Celsius rather than where the daily average ends up. Current crowd pricing is heavily skewed to the upper 30s bands, with Polymarket showing 34°C as the leading outcome at 41% and 35°C at 31%, while the listed 0% YES print suggests the contract has been priced as if the exact range now under discussion is effectively off the board or misframed relative to the visible outcome ladder.[14]

That caution matters because Chengdu’s August climatology is already hot, humid, and often convective. Long-run guides put typical daytime highs around 30–32°C, with August commonly described as the city’s hottest stretch and occasional spikes into 33–34°C or higher; one historical table gives 4 August at 32.1°C for Chengdu, while another same-day forecast points to a 32°C high with scattered showers.[2][5][7][10] In other words, the market’s implied bias towards the low-to-mid 30s is directionally consistent with seasonal norms, but the gap between a 32°C and a 35°C settlement is still meaningful for a contract tied to one station observation.[2][14]

The main catalysts are straightforward: whether afternoon sunshine beats back cloud cover, whether showers arrive early enough to suppress the peak, and how quickly the airport station warms before the first convective burst. Forecasts in the sourced weather feeds lean towards patchy rain or scattered showers with highs near 31–32°C, which is softer than the crowd’s leading 34–35°C cluster and argues for watching intraday radar and station observations rather than headline monthly averages.[1][4][9][17] No recent newsroom event appears to move the contract directly; for a same-day weather market, the live temperature trend and any precipitation timing matter more than broader climate commentary.[1][4][17]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 4? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.