Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The live weather setup in Chengdu is the key variable for the airport-station temperature on 6 August: recent city forecasts point to hot conditions with rain or showers, including a daytime maximum around 35°C in official Chinese city forecasts and 32-33°C in multiple daily forecast feeds. BBC Weather’s current Chengdu observation is 24°C with 74% humidity, which fits a warm, moisture-laden airmass rather than an unusually cool regime.[12][13][1][3]

Against that backdrop, the crowd-implied 0% YES looks notably lower than the historical and forecast baseline. August in Chengdu is typically hot and humid, with long-run guidance clustering around 30-34°C daytime highs and some sources saying highs can exceed 35°C; Travel China Guide lists average August highs near 30°C, while WeatherSpark puts typical daily highs around 82-87°F, or roughly 28-31°C, with occasional peaks up to 94°F (about 34°C). That makes a very low-price contract hard to reconcile with the broader climate profile unless one assumes an unusually cool, rain-suppressed day at the airport.[8][11][18][5]

For traders, the main catalysts are the day’s official airport observations and any late-shifting cloud, rain, or thunderstorm timing that could cap the afternoon maximum before the settlement cut-off. The most relevant comparison point is the Wunderground airport history page used for resolution, but the cross-platform picture will be shaped by how closely AccuWeather, the Met Office, and local Chinese forecasts converge on the final high; at present, those feeds sit mostly in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius rather than near the sort of sub-30 outcome that would make the current 0% implied probability look justified.[2][17][12][10]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 6? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.