Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market is about the **highest observed temperature at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station on 31 July**, and the current crowd price of **0% YES** implies traders are treating the threshold as effectively out of reach. That sits against forecast ranges from mainstream weather sites that are much warmer than zero-probability would suggest: several outlets point to daytime highs around **30–35°C**, with some intraday peaks into the **mid-30s** and only modest rain chances, although one shorter-horizon forecast is more pessimistic and shows a cooler, wetter day around **24–26°C**.[2][3][9][14][16]

Historically, Chengdu in July is a high-humidity, monsoon-influenced market where the *average* temperature is around the mid-20s Celsius, but individual hot spells can still reach the upper 30s.[16][19] That makes this contract more a question of whether the airport station posts a brief afternoon spike than of the daily mean. On the available comparison set, the prediction-market price looks far below the weather sites’ central case, while the absence of a listed sportsbook line leaves no clear external price anchor; analysts’ broad consensus from forecast providers is for warmth, but not for extreme heat.[2][7][9][16]

Catalysts for traders are the usual short-range forecast updates, especially changes in cloud cover, convection and rainfall timing, because a late-day thunderstorm can cap the daily maximum even after a hot morning. The most relevant dependency is the airport station’s own report on the day, since the market resolves to the highest temperature recorded there rather than a citywide forecast; that means hourly observations, not just the afternoon headline high, matter most. If stronger rain or thunderstorm guidance appears in the final run-up, that would narrow the path to the hotter ranges and keep the current 0% crowd view under pressure.[13][14]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.