Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chongqing’s airport temperature on 3 August will hinge on whether the day’s maximum clears the low 30s Celsius or finishes closer to the upper 20s. The market’s current **0% YES** implies the crowd sees virtually no chance that the observed high lands in the contract’s YES range, even though several forecast providers still point to a warm August afternoon for the city, with highs around **30°C** at midday and around **34°C** in broader August climatology. [1][11][12][16]

The historical frame argues against treating any one forecast at face value: Chongqing’s August climate is firmly hot and humid, with average highs near **34°C** in some local climate summaries and airport-based climate normals around **93°F/34°C** for the month, yet the same sources also show substantial day-to-day variation and frequent rain. [11][12][16] For a contract resolved by the **highest temperature recorded** at Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station, the relevant comparison is not the daily average but the intraday peak, which can be capped by cloud, showers and monsoon-like humidity; current weather pages already show light rain or rain chances through the morning and early afternoon, which would matter more than the headline monthly average. [1][10]

The main catalysts to watch are the airport station’s observed hourly updates, any forecast revisions from late morning onwards, and whether precipitation clears long enough for a brief post-rain temperature spike. Forecast platforms are not fully aligned: Tutiempo suggests **30°C** by 12:00 local time, Met Office data shows rain risk persisting into the morning and midday, while other August outlooks still leave room for highs in the mid-30s, which is the key divergence versus the market’s near-zero implied YES probability. [1][10][11]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 3? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.