Highest temperature in Dallas on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Dallas’s 9 August temperature outcome appears to have settled around the upper 90s Fahrenheit, with Polymarket showing 100% on **98–99°F** and no visible support for lower bands, while the market terms make the **Weather Underground Daily Observations** table the binding source rather than the summary high/low box.[1][10] That matters because the contract is keyed to the highest recorded temperature at Dallas Love Field Station in Fahrenheit, so the exact hourly peak, station identifier and any post hoc revision control the payout rather than headline weather coverage.[10]

For context, late-summer Dallas heat usually leaves little room for surprise: AccuWeather’s August outlook shows 9 August near **100°F**, and historic Dallas weather pages routinely show daily highs in the upper 90s to around 100°F in this part of the season.[3][14] Recent live and historical weather pages around the date also point to a hot day, with Dallas-area readings in the mid-90s to upper-90s and forecast language calling for a sunny, warm Sunday, which is consistent with the crowd’s near-unanimous pricing and suggests the main question was not whether it would be hot, but whether the station’s maximum landed in the 98–99°F bucket or a neighbouring band.[2][5][7]

The key catalyst for traders is not an announcement but the publication sequence of the observation tables: the market rules say revisions are valid until the first datapoint for the following date appears, so the final resolution depends on when Weather Underground posts the completed 9 August history and whether any later correction changes the station’s maximum.[1][10] Cross-platform comparison also shows little disagreement: the crowd is essentially fully aligned with the weather-forecast consensus, and there is no meaningful sportsbook-style price to arbitrage here unless a late table update or station-specific discrepancy emerges.[1][3][10]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Dallas on August 9? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.