Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport is forecast to sit in a hot, humid and rainy August pattern, and the day’s high is unlikely to stray far from the low-30s Celsius. Current external forecasts cluster around **32–33°C** for Guangzhou, with one city-level forecast giving **25–32°C** and another placing **4 August** near **33°C/26°C** under moderate to heavy rain, which is consistent with the airport station clearing the lower temperature bands but still leaving the market vulnerable to a hotter-than-expected afternoon reading.[2][3][4][8]

That backdrop matters because the market is resolving to the **highest observed temperature** at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, not a city average or a forecast high. August is typically Guangzhou’s hottest month, with multiple climate guides and monthly forecasts pointing to highs around **33–34°C** and averages near **91°F/33°C**, so the crowd-implied **0% YES** looks disconnected from the climatology unless the contract’s YES range is materially above the likely peak band.[1][7][10][15][16] On a cross-platform basis, sportsbook-style weather lines would ordinarily sit close to the forecast high rather than the eventual observation, while prediction-market pricing appears to be treating this as a near-impossible outcome, suggesting a wide gap between market price and analyst-style weather expectations.

For traders, the main catalysts are the evolving Guangzhou morning and midday forecasts, live observations at Baiyun Airport, and whether showers or thunderstorm timing suppress the afternoon maximum. The official Guangdong forecast issued at 05:00 local time already called for Guangzhou to reach **25–32°C**, while broader live weather feeds still showed **around 30°C** at the airport with very high humidity, leaving scope for a late-day push if cloud cover breaks.[2][8][17] Any shift in rain intensity or clearing timing will matter more than overnight conditions, because the contract settles on the day’s recorded maximum, not the morning forecast.[2][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.