Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport’s peak on 6 August is a **daytime maximum in the mid-30s Celsius**, with the current market heavily concentrated around 36–37°C rather than the crowd-implied 0% for YES on the contract as a whole. That is broadly in line with public forecast ranges for Guangzhou this month, which cluster around 33–34°C highs on average, while the city’s August climate normals are described as hot, humid, and rain-prone.[1][8][16]

The historical frame is straightforward: Guangzhou’s August highs are usually elevated enough that a 35–37°C print is not exceptional, but cloud cover and showers can cap the top end quickly. Recent local and regional weather guidance has put Guangzhou near 36°C on 6 August, with the Hong Kong observatory’s Guangdong city forecast also showing Guangzhou at 26–36°C and pointing to fine to cloudy conditions, while other forecasts flag showers and lower realised highs. That leaves a narrow but meaningful spread between a hot, dry outcome and a rain-interrupted one, which is why the market is split across adjacent temperature buckets rather than a single standout line.[2][4][6][13]

The main catalysts are the overnight and morning forecast updates, especially any change in rainfall timing, cloud cover, or thunderstorm coverage before the airport’s daily maximum is set. Because settlement uses the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station reading on Wunderground, traders should watch whether official China Meteorological Administration and nearby-city forecasts maintain the current 35–36°C ceiling or shift towards heavier precipitation; on a cross-platform basis, that matters more than the broader tourist-style climate averages, which are less granular than the exact station-based resolution source.[5][6][16]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.