Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s official high for 10 August will be set by the Hong Kong Observatory’s “Absolute Daily Max” in the daily extract, and the market resolves on that published figure once finalised. With the contract currently at **0% YES**, the pricing is effectively saying the city is not expected to deliver a top-end reading in the relevant range, even though August is climatologically one of Hong Kong’s hottest months and the Observatory’s own normal for 10 August is a daytime maximum around 31.4C.[5][17]

That zero-implied view contrasts with the recent weather backdrop. On 9 August, Hong Kong recorded **36.9C** at Observatory headquarters, the city’s hottest official reading since records began in 1884, as Typhoon Dolphin drove exceptionally warm air over the territory.[1][4][10] Comparable recent Augusts have also produced very warm maxima at the Observatory, including 34.4C on 10 August 2025, which shows that early-August extremes are not rare when tropical systems and subsiding air align.[3] Against that history, a 0% market price looks materially more bearish than the latest realised temperatures, while available sportsbook-style forecast pages are still implying only high-90s Fahrenheit highs rather than the sort of mid-30s Celsius outcome that would move the contract into the upper bands.[2][8][13]

The main catalysts are the Hong Kong Observatory’s intraday readings, the timing of the 12:00 UTC settlement window, and whether the final daily extract is published with the day’s peak already locked in.[12][17] Traders should also watch for any late changes in the local forecast, especially the influence of tropical weather or post-cyclone subsidence, because those are the patterns that have recently pushed readings far above seasonal norms.[1][4] In cross-platform terms, this is a clear divergence between the prediction market’s near-zero consensus and the broader weather-forecast market, which still points to a hot but not necessarily record-breaking day.[2][8][13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 10? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.