Highest temperature in Houston on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Houston’s highest temperature on 3 August is the kind of late-summer Texas call that usually sits close to the seasonal mean rather than at an extreme, because Houston’s August climate is dominated by persistent heat and humidity. Long-range guides put August afternoon highs in the mid-80s to mid-90s Fahrenheit, while Houston’s airport-area climate normals show August as one of the hottest months of the year[5][11][18]. Against that backdrop, a crowd-implied probability of 0% for a Yes outcome looks inconsistent with the broad climate frame; the market is almost certainly pricing either a misunderstanding of the contract definition or a very specific temperature band rather than a genuine belief that the airport will avoid a qualifying high altogether[16].

Historical and comparable cases also matter here because the settlement is tied to the William P. Hobby Airport station, not to a citywide average or a forecast for downtown Houston. Airport readings can differ meaningfully from general city forecasts, and Houston’s August highs often cluster around the upper 80s to mid-90s Fahrenheit, with occasional hotter spikes when the air mass is especially stagnant[1][5][9][12]. On the cross-platform comparison, sportsbook-style weather lines and general forecast sites point to a hot, but not exceptional, setup for early August, while the current prediction-market price appears far below the kind of probability implied by seasonal climatology and nearby forecast ranges[3][4][15][16].

The main catalysts are straightforward: whether the forecast for 3 August trends towards a wetter, cloudier setup or a clearer, hotter one, and what the official Hobby Airport observation ultimately prints on the day. Houston weather can shift quickly with Gulf moisture, which is why day-ahead and same-day updates from the National Weather Service, local forecasters, and Weather Underground matter more than static long-range averages[8][10][13]. Traders should also watch for any late changes in convective coverage or humidity-driven heat suppression, because even a modest increase in cloud cover can pull the recorded high down several degrees relative to the published model forecasts[3][4][8].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.