Highest temperature in Houston on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Houston’s maximum temperature on 9 August is the real-world event here, and the market has already been priced to a near-certainty despite the contract’s Weather Underground resolution rule. The crowd-implied probability is 0% for the outlier downside, while the Polymarket contract page shows the dominant band at 92–93°F with a 100% implied probability, leaving a very narrow distribution around the consensus high.[7] That is broadly in line with National Weather Service and AccuWeather guidance, which both pointed to a high around 92°F for Houston on the day, with the official forecast also carrying a chance of thunderstorms that could have clipped the peak if convection arrived early.[6][1]

For historical framing, Houston in early August normally sits in the low-to-mid 90s, and the city’s climate normals show a daily maximum around 94°F for that period at Hobby Airport.[12] AccuWeather’s August outlook for Houston also clustered highs mostly between 90°F and 97°F, so the market’s pricing is not built on an unusual heat extreme but on the familiar seasonal baseline that often determines these temperature contracts.[1] The key comparison is between the market’s almost unanimous banding and the settlement source: because this contract resolves off Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table rather than a summary high/low, traders should care more about the exact recorded peak at William P. Hobby Airport than about any rounded headline figure.

What should have mattered most was the timing of any afternoon showers or cloud cover, since a late burst of thunderstorms is the main way Houston misses an otherwise standard low-90s high in August.[6][9] Forecast products updated through the afternoon of 9 August still pointed to mostly cloudy, humid conditions with temperatures near 90°F, which supports the view that the market was effectively trading a normal seasonal cap rather than a wide weather range.[4][9] The main catalyst for any late repricing would have been the final airport observation sequence published before Weather Underground locked in the daily table; once the first datapoint for the following date appears, subsequent edits do not count for this market.[7]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Houston on August 9? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.