Highest temperature in Los Angeles on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market concerns the highest temperature recorded at Los Angeles International Airport on 14 August 2026, with settlement determined by Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests traders are pricing in no meaningful likelihood of extreme heat on that specific date, despite the market's apparent structure allowing for multiple temperature ranges as resolution outcomes.

Los Angeles experiences peak summer heat in August, with historical daily highs typically ranging from 75°F to 88°F at LAX, though the airport's coastal location moderates temperatures compared to inland areas. August 2024 saw LAX record a high of 82°F on the 14th, whilst August 2023 reached 81°F on the same date. The 0% probability reading appears disconnected from seasonal norms, suggesting either the market's range brackets are positioned substantially above typical August conditions or traders have interpreted the resolution criteria in a way that makes standard summer temperatures fall outside available options.

Traders should monitor National Weather Service forecasts released in early August 2026, particularly heat advisories or excessive heat warnings for Southern California. Any significant atmospheric patterns—such as a persistent high-pressure system or Santa Ana wind conditions—would be critical catalysts. The specificity of using LAX station data rather than broader Los Angeles measurements matters; coastal airport temperatures typically run 5–10°F cooler than inland valleys. Settlement hinges entirely on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table methodology, which may differ from other official temperature reporting sources, making data source verification essential before market close on 14 August at noon UTC.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Los Angeles on August 14? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.