Highest temperature in Madrid on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Madrid’s late-July heat is normally intense enough that a high in the mid-30s °C is unremarkable, and several current forecasts are leaning even hotter: AccuWeather’s Madrid monthly pages show 31 July around 31-35°C, while another Madrid forecast source cited in the results points to 38°C for the day. That leaves the contract’s 0% YES crowd price looking detached from both climatology and near-term forecast baselines, especially because the settlement source is the airport station at Barajas rather than a city-centre site, where readings can differ slightly.[1][2][4][7][12]

Historical context also argues against treating a zero price as meaningful. July averages for Madrid put daily highs around 33-34°C, and WeatherSpark notes that July maxima commonly sit in that band, with extremes above 37°C being uncommon but not exceptional.[7][9][17][18] Madrid’s all-time city heat records have reached 40.7°C at the Retiro station in recent years, and Barajas itself has recently posted highs in the upper-30s, including 38.7°C in Met Office observations, so the upper temperature buckets should remain live if the day runs hot enough.[11][12][16]

For traders, the main catalysts are straightforward: the actual evolution of the afternoon temperature curve, the day’s cloud cover and any dry-air surge, and whether any regional heat warnings or forecast upgrades appear before the settlement window closes. The most relevant live comparison point is the airport station itself, since the market resolves on Wunderground’s Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport history page rather than broader Madrid forecasts; that means city-level headlines only matter insofar as they map onto airport conditions.[4][12] In cross-platform terms, sportsbook-style weather pricing and analyst consensus tend to track the same meteorological inputs, so any divergence from the 0% implied market price is more likely to reflect thin liquidity than a genuinely contrarian forecast.[4][12]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.