Highest temperature in Manila on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Manila’s temperature on 10 August is being priced against a backdrop of a wet southwest-monsoon pattern, with official Philippine guidance pointing to occasional rains over Metro Manila and possible flash flooding or landslides in the wider region. PAGASA’s selected-city outlook for Manila shows a **26°C to 32°C** range for Monday, while private forecasters are clustered lower or mid-80s Fahrenheit, with AccuWeather calling for **85°F/80°F** and thunderstorms, and Timeanddate showing **86°F/81°F** with high precipitation chances.[11][12][2][4]

That makes the market’s **0% YES** crowd price look disconnected from the weather setup rather than from any meaningful dry-season analogue. August normals in Manila are humid and warm, with average highs around **87°F** and lows near **77°F**, and nearby historical/seasonal guides put typical August daytime temperatures in the low 30s Celsius.[1][7][9][14] In other words, even a rain-affected day can still produce a highest temperature in the upper 20s or low 30s Celsius, which is why the relevant contract range is likely to be decided by whether the airport station gets a brief warm-up before convective rain arrives, not by the day’s overall feel. The current sports-betting style comparison point is essentially absent here: the visible consensus is in weather forecasts, and those all imply a materially higher chance of a warm daytime peak than the market suggests.[1][2][4][11]

Traders should watch the **Weather Underground Daily Observations** at Ninoy Aquino International Airport, because that is the settlement source, not the summary high/low box. A 1:22 AM local Weather Underground reading already showed rain and **77°F** at Manila, while nearby hourly feeds still projected temperatures rising into the mid-80s Fahrenheit later in the day, so the key catalyst is the timing and intensity of showers through the late morning and afternoon rather than the existence of rain itself.[10][8] The other dependency is the monsoon bulletin cycle: if PAGASA keeps Metro Manila under occasional rain or thunderstorms, the ceiling on the day’s highest reading may stay below forecast highs, but not necessarily below the contract’s lower Celsius bands.[12]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.