Highest temperature in Milan on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Milan’s highest temperature is usually decided by a hot, late-summer midday peak, and the contract’s settlement method matters because it uses Weather Underground’s **Daily Observations** table for Malpensa rather than the site’s summary high/low line. On long-run August climatology, Milan typically posts highs around the high-20s to low-30s Celsius, with WeatherSpark putting average daily highs in August near 28°C and rare excursions above the low-30s[11][19]. That makes a **0% YES** crowd price look like a strong assumption that the day will fail to reach the specified range, rather than a view that Milan will be cool by seasonal standards[11][19].

Comparable August records show that the market can still resolve on a much warmer outcome when a heat ridge builds over northern Italy. Historical datasets for Milan show August highs frequently around 30°C-32°C, with some recent years printing above 32°C and isolated record highs materially higher[3][6][13]. The cross-platform picture is consistent with a warm baseline: AccuWeather’s current August forecast page has recently shown upper-20s to around 30°C for nearby dates, while Met Office observations for the Milan area have reached the mid-30s Celsius in the current spell, underscoring how quickly the local temperature can move if hot air persists[4][17].

For traders, the key catalysts are the actual early-day evolution at Malpensa and whether cloud, wind shift, or convective showers cap the afternoon maximum before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC[2][15]. Because the contract resolves on the **highest recorded observation** in Weather Underground’s table, not the displayed day-high summary, a last-hour spike can matter more than the headline forecast line. The main divergence to watch is between market pricing and any live forecast service showing a warm afternoon: if forecasts cluster near 30°C and the market still sits at 0% YES, that gap is the clearest sign of mispricing rather than a consensus call on a cool day[2][4][18].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Milan on August 10? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.