Highest temperature in Munich on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Munich Airport’s afternoon high on 10 August typically sits in the mid-20s Celsius, but late-summer heat spikes are common enough that outcomes above 30C remain firmly in play. The contract’s current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES is therefore best read as a pricing artefact rather than a statement that an all-day reading above the lower temperature bands is impossible; Munich’s August record high is 37C, and long-run averages for the month cluster around 24C to 25C.[2][17][12]

For comparable cases, the useful guide is how Munich behaves on hot August days rather than the average day. Historical climate references show a broad tail to the upside, with August highs in the low-to-mid 30s appearing in some years and extreme peaks reaching 37C to 38C in the records cited by climate trackers.[6][2] That means a market priced at zero can still move quickly if the day starts clear, the boundary layer mixes well, and cloud or shower cover stays limited. Weather Underground’s own history pages also point to a typical August high around the mid-20s Celsius, which is consistent with a market that is usually range-bound but vulnerable to a surprise spike.[3][11]

The key catalysts are the live Munich Airport observations through the settlement window, especially the Daily Observations table, which this market specifies as the primary source if it differs from the summary high/low display. Traders should watch for intraday cloud cover, rain showers, and wind shifts, because those can suppress the terminal high even after a warm morning; by 07:50 UTC, nearby Munich observations were already in the high teens Celsius, showing a mild start but not yet a decisive ceiling for the day.[1] The contract settles on the highest temperature recorded on Weather Underground in the specified table, so the relevant risk is not the forecast headline but the actual peak reading printed there.[3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Munich on August 10? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.