Highest temperature in Munich on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Munich's highest temperature on 11 August 2026 will be recorded at the airport meteorological station and resolved via Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The market currently shows zero probability assigned to any outcome, suggesting either minimal trading activity or a settlement window sufficiently distant that traders have not yet positioned. Resolution depends on precise instrumental readings rather than rounded forecasts, making this a technical rather than narrative weather event.

August temperatures in Munich historically cluster between 24–28°C for daily highs, with extremes occasionally reaching 30°C during heat waves. The 2023 European summer saw Munich record 32°C on multiple days, whilst the 30-year August average high sits near 25°C. Current crowd probability of zero reflects the contract's early stage; comparable weather markets on established platforms typically show non-zero probabilities even for distant settlement dates, suggesting this market may lack sufficient liquidity or trader participation to generate meaningful implied odds. The specificity of using airport station data rather than city-centre readings introduces a technical constraint that professional weather traders monitor closely, as airport locations often record marginally different temperatures than urban centres.

Traders should monitor European summer weather pattern forecasts released in late July 2026, particularly Atlantic ridge positioning and Mediterranean heat dome development. The German Meteorological Service (Deutscher Wetterdienst) publishes extended outlooks approximately two weeks before settlement; these typically inform professional positioning. Any significant heat wave warnings issued in early August would likely shift market probabilities sharply, as would unexpected cold-air intrusions from northern Europe.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Munich on August 11? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.